The long-standing “Iron Brotherhood” between China and Pakistan is now showing signs of tension
Once thought to be indestructible, the long-standing “Iron Brotherhood” between China and Pakistan now seems to be deteriorating. Beijing’s position has come under scrutiny as a result of India’s strong reaction to the terrorist incident in Pahalgam. China’s reaction has been characterized by diplomatic prudence and a conspicuous lack of forthright denunciation against India, despite observers’ intense expectations for an unambiguous display of solidarity for Islamabad.
Analysts identify seven strategic reasons that highlight China’s changing calculations and its hesitancy to completely commit to Pakistan’s aggressive posture against India, indicating that this change in Beijing’s strategy is not random. Here are seven main explanations for China’s deliberate restraint:
1. High stakes in trade with India
China is aware that increasing tensions with India would seriously harm its own economy, since their yearly commerce exceeds $140 billion. India is becoming one of China’s biggest export destinations, which is important given that global supply chains are moving away from Chinese industrial centers. Beijing cannot afford to endanger such a vital economic alliance.
2. Preserving De-escalation at the Border
China and India have worked together to ease border tensions after the tragic conflict in the Galwan Valley in 2020. In addition to undermining these diplomatic gains, openly supporting Pakistan’s terrorist agenda runs the danger of India enforcing further restrictions on Chinese technology, similar to the app bans that have already occurred. In order to prevent further conflict, Beijing places a high priority on border stability.
3. Aspirations for Global South Leadership
China is aggressively working to establish itself as the head of the Global South, an alliance that promotes growth, stability, and harmonious coexistence. This carefully constructed image would be seriously damaged by an open support of Pakistan’s purported terrorist activities, undermining credibility and confidence among countries that choose peace over war.
4. Protecting Road and Belt Investments
One of the main pillars of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), is already very susceptible to terrorism and domestic instability in Pakistan. A full-scale battle between India and Pakistan would seriously jeopardize China’s multibillion-dollar investments. Beijing has already begun to have doubts after incidents such as the assault on Chinese engineers in Pakistan.
5. Using a Subtle Approach Instead of Direct Conflict
Indirect pressure and strategic messaging are often preferred over open conflict in China’s foreign policy. Although Beijing continues to help Pakistan via backdoor routes, diplomatic backing at the UN, and weaponry deliveries, it carefully balances its activities to avoid giving India an excuse for open hostility. It uses subtle tactics rather than overt hostility to achieve its authority.
6. Diplomacy’s “Double Game”
China uses its veto power to prevent international penalties against terrorist groups headquartered in Pakistan while also denouncing terrorism on a global scale, maintaining a delicate diplomatic balance. This is a geopolitical “double game” that gives Beijing some political flexibility by enabling it to seem to the world that it values peace while also proving its allegiance and dependability to Pakistan.
7. Growing Strategic Alignment between the US and India
China is very concerned about the growing strategic relations between the United States and India, especially via programs like QUAD and possible bilateral economic deals. Beijing is well aware that publicly supporting Pakistan might further drive India closer to the United States, radically shifting the balance of power in the region against China’s long-term interests.