Hong Kong: Under Chairman Xi Jinping, China is progressively but unavoidably increasing the pressure and heat on Taiwan, much like the frog in a pot, which boils to death when the water is heated gradually. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is normalising coercive behaviour against the democratic country by operating in this manner.
Since May 2024, PLA activity near Taiwan has reached all-time highs as communist-run China increases pressure. PLA aircraft flights into Taiwan’s self-declared air defence identification zone (ADIZ) were at record levels from January 1 to March 31, 2025, to demonstrate how China is fuelling the fire. In actuality, there were more PLA flights overall over the same three-month period in 2024 than there were in 2023 altogether.
When you combine these flights with Beijing’s use of China Coast Guard (CCG) ships in coercive maritime law enforcement operations and malicious undersea communications cable cutting by rogue merchant vessels, it is clear that China is actively working to change the situation across the Taiwan Strait.
In an effort to change public opinion, China is waging psychological warfare on Taiwan in addition to military pressure. In fact, Chinese behaviour is “a textbook on subversion, cyber, and political harassment,” according to Sir Alex Younger, the former head of the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service.
When China conducted Exercise Strait Thunder-2025A from April 1 to 1–2, the situation became even more tense. The PLA’s Eastern Theatre Command sent troops to “close in on Taiwan from multiple directions” at 07:30 on April 1st, the start of the provocative wargames. A blockade of strategic locations and sea channels, sea-air combat readiness patrols, the capture of air and sea dominance, and an attack on land and maritime targets were the four main components that were practised.
The PLA announced aircraft carrier exercises and long-range, live-fire missile training in the Pacific Ocean east of Taiwan the next day. According to the PLA, three main strategies were used that day: identification, verification, warning, expulsion, interception, and detention actions; combined blockade control and enforcement; and precision attacks on strategic targets.
The number of PLA Navy warships seen near Taiwan increased from 15 to 21 on the first day to 21 to 23 on the second. This included the Shandong aircraft carrier task group, which was formed to “simulate strikes on ground and maritime targets in areas to the east” and was located between 190 and 220 nautical miles southeast of Taiwan. With 27 ships discovered in May 2024, the Strait Thunder-2025A fleet now has the second-highest number of warships ever patrolling near Taiwan.
There was also the CCG. On the first day, it deployed four to six boats, and on the second day, 10. The CCG’s East China Sea Bureau sent out “law enforcement patrols” using vessels that surrounded Taiwan. Additionally, East China Fujian coast guard warships patrolled the area around the outlying islands of Dongyin and Wuqiu in Taiwan.
Regarding the PLA Air Force, on the first day, Taiwan identified 76 Chinese aircraft, 37 of which made their way into Taiwan’s Adjacent Demilitarised Zone. The next day, 59 more aircraft took part, including 31 ADIZ incursions. These included a combination of drones, fighters, and helicopters. Notably, an operational H-6K bomber carrying KD-21 air-launched ballistic missiles was seen for the first time.
“Precision strikes on simulated targets of key ports and energy facilities” were part of the PLA Rocket Force’s live-fire exercises, and they produced “desired effects”. The Yongan liquefied natural gas facility in Kaohsiung was one of the simulated targets. Additionally, some 250 miles northwest of Taiwan, the PLA’s 72nd Group Army’s 1st Rocket Artillery Brigade used its PHL-16 long-range rocket launchers.
Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States all expressed “deep concern about China’s provocative actions” in a statement released by their respective G7 foreign ministers. According to them, “These increasingly frequent and destabilising activities are raising cross-Strait tensions and putting at risk global security and prosperity.”
China was accused by Taipei of “escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait”, while the United States said that it was against any unilateral alterations to the current situation in the strait that would involve coercion or force.
China, however, has a totally different perspective. The exercises were described as “a stern warning and forceful deterrence against Taiwan independence separatist forces, and it is a legitimate and necessary action to safeguard China’s sovereignty and national unity” by Senior Colonel Shi Yi, eastern theatre command spokeswoman.
However, there are some lies here. As a reference to President Lai Ching-te’s government, the first is that “Taiwan independence separatist forces” rule Taiwan. Despite his promise to uphold the status quo, Lai is especially despised by the CCP. Beijing demonises Lai for not bowing to Beijing, even though he is no more “separatist” than his predecessor. Naturally, the CCP may blame Lai and defend its own aggression by consistently misrepresenting the facts.
China’s activities are not “legitimate and necessary” either. There is no danger to Chinese sovereignty from Taiwan. The island will not attack China’s mainland. Instead, Taiwan’s refusal to accept the CCP’s ambition to subjugate Taiwan is the issue. For political reasons, China is promoting its own biassed and conceited perspective.
The PLA Daily released an opinion post by “Jun Zhengping” the same week. “Jun Zhengping” is just an entity that represents the PLA’s social brand, not a real person.
It reiterated the same unfounded claims on the aggressive nature of Taiwanese separatists. For instance, it claimed that tensions in the Taiwan Strait had been steadily rising since Lai Ching-te took office in May of last year. Lai Ching-te is the one responsible for the tension that exists right now. Naturally, this is a common CCP tactic to place the blame elsewhere in order to justify raising tensions.
The op-ed went on: “Lai has consistently weakened the interests of the Chinese people and gone beyond the bounds of peace in less than a year in power. Cross-strait relations were harmed from the start when he said in his so-called inauguration address last year that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not subject to one another. He is always stirring up problems. It is clear that a democratic Taiwan is unacceptable to the CCP. Furthermore, it can only tolerate Taiwan as a puppet of Beijing’s communist jackboot.
“Jun Zhengping” accused Lai of being “a maker of war” and “a true generator of danger”, throwing aspersions about like patty cakes. The article went on to say, “China’s fundamental interests are centred on the Taiwan issue. The Chinese leadership has consistently declared to the world that it is a matter of principle. We have the capacity and determination to defeat any adversaries attempting to divide our nation, and we have sufficient moral and legal justification to punish anybody who tries to sabotage peace.”
The errors put out here are absurd once again. Indeed, China has made its accusations public, but they are morally and legally baseless. Since Beijing is the one threatening war, it is hard to see how Taiwan is “undermining peace” given how friendly it is.
“If Lai Ching-te continues to cling to illusions, misjudge the situation, act recklessly, and provoke repeatedly, he will inevitably face complete destruction,” the same PLA paper stated unequivocally.
In actuality, Xi’s China may be the target of the charges that “Jun Zhengping” was recklessly making. “As the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities aggressively weave their illusion of so-called independence, every person in Taiwan must clearly see through their malicious intent to push the Taiwan Strait towards perilous conflict for the sake of their own party and self-interest.” For its own self-interest, isn’t the CCP determined to drive the Taiwan Strait into dangerous conflict?
It is concerning how loud Chinese warmongering is, especially considering that this essay was published in PLA media. What other nation threatens and terrifies its neighbour so vividly? “The pursuit of Taiwan independence is a dead end,” the article’s conclusion said. Any plot to divide Taiwan from China will not be accepted or encouraged by us. The Chinese PLA has the courage, tenacity, commitment, and—above all—the capacity to boldly defend national dignity and sovereignty.
No one should claim that he has not been told that Taiwan’s independence would lead to war. It couldn’t be more obvious. China and the PLA are threatening to go to war with Taiwan. These are the statements of an irascible bully, not the conscientious global actor that China portrays itself as. Beijing is enraged by anybody who disputes that Taiwan is a part of communist China and cannot stand anyone who disagrees with it.
Speaking in a similar vein, Zhu Fenglian, the spokesperson for China’s State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, described the PLA exercise as a “firm safeguard for the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait and the safety and well-being of Taiwan compatriots” and a “just move to punish attempts to split the country.” Once again, “safety and wellbeing” cannot be reconciled with the ominous spectres of war.
In the context of a war-torn Taiwan, it is noteworthy that vehement PLA propaganda, such as official exercise videos and social media posts posted on Sina Weibo, depicted China as a powerful Monkey King warrior from Chinese mythology, while Lai was compared to a parasite imprisoned by its PLA captor. In the violent movies, PLA soldiers were shown attacking well-known Taiwanese monuments, including the Taipei 101 building and troops were shown assigned to defend the president of Taiwan in an emergency.
China may feel compelled to disparage Taiwan since it has experienced humiliation on several occasions. For example, Lai declared 17 steps in March to thwart Chinese efforts to annex Taiwan. These included working with friends and diplomatic partners, as well as bolstering economic security and defence capabilities. As a result, the exercise and all of these public remarks were intended in part to allay resentment over Taiwan’s persistent unwillingness to bend the knee.
The expulsion of Chinese citizen Liu Zhenya, a YouTuber with a Taiwanese spouse, by Taiwan was another humiliation for China. Before being expelled and returned to China, she supported the PLA’s conquest of Taiwan.
Thus, these wargames and related propaganda campaigns were created for both the people of Taiwan and the Chinese population. The CCP is promoting “little pinks” at home, a term used to describe youthful, ethnocentric Chinese internet users who are fervently in favour of unification. Meanwhile, as more prominent PLA leaders—including those who were formerly seen as Xi loyalists—are being detained and removed, trust in the organisation is faltering.
It’s interesting to note that China didn’t formally label the exercise until April 2. The PLA National Defence University’s Professor Zhang Li previously gave an explanation for the decision to keep the exercises unnamed in an interview with official broadcaster CCTV. “This largely demonstrates that the pertinent drill content we see today is already a new normal, which is conventional for the Eastern Theatre and the PLA,” he added. These normalisation drills are intended to provide the DPP leadership and the separatist forces of “Taiwan independence” a consistent sense of the PLA’s strong intent and capacity to uphold national sovereignty and combat separatist forces.
Zhang’s reasoning, which he compared to the normalisation of such coercive practices, was intriguing. However, by the next day, the PLA had changed their mind and chose to name the exercise.
In February, US Indo-Pacific Command Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo characterised PLA actions in the Taiwan area as “not exercises; they are rehearsals” for forceful reunification. The question of whether or when China would launch a violent assault on Taiwan is up for debate. According to anonymous “intel sources” cited in a recent report by the US-based website 19FortyFive, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is expected to occur in less than six months.
“It’s crystal clear what China’s intentions are towards Taiwan,” said Dr Malcolm Davis, Senior Analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, expressing a more extreme viewpoint. In order to force unification against the desire of the Taiwanese people, they fully aim to increase military pressure on Taipei to yield, but if that doesn’t work, anticipate a blockade and a military invasion within this decade. A common tactic of hope and a certain way to fail is to act as if it won’t happen.